Write out the formula of Probability
[tex]\text{Probability}=\frac{Number\text{ of favourable outcomes}}{Total\text{ number of outcomes}}[/tex]Total number of marbles= total number of red marbles plus the total number of blue marbles.
Total number of marbles= 4+6= 10 marbles.
We were the two different marbles were picked and replaced randomly. So let us get the probability of picking a red marble.
Doubling the probability of pulling a red marble out on the first try is not correct, it will be shown why that is not correct shortly below.
[tex]\begin{gathered} \text{Number of red marbles=4} \\ \text{Total marble= 10} \\ \text{Probability of red marble=}\frac{4}{10} \\ =\frac{\text{ 2}}{5} \end{gathered}[/tex][tex]\begin{gathered} \text{Probability of picking another red will also be}\frac{2}{5}\text{ because the red marble} \\ is\text{ b}een\text{ repolaced.} \end{gathered}[/tex]Therefore, the probability of pulling a red marble and also another red marble will result to:
[tex]\frac{2}{5}\times\frac{2}{5}=\frac{4}{25}[/tex]But if you just double the red marble on your first try, you will have:
[tex]\begin{gathered} 2\times\frac{2}{5}=\frac{4}{5} \\ \text{which is not correct} \end{gathered}[/tex]From the calculations done above you can see doubling it is not correct.