A population can be divided into two subgroups that occur with probabilities 60% and 40%, respectively. An event A occurs 30% of the time in the first subgroup and 50% of the time in the second subgroup. What is the unconditional probability of the event A, regardless of which subgroup it comes from

Respuesta :

The unconditional probability of the event A, regardless of which subgroup it comes from is 38%

How to determine the probability?

Let the events be represented as:

  • A ⇒ The event A happening
  • B ⇒ First subgroup
  • C ⇒ Second subgroup

So, we have:

P(B) = 60%

P(C) = 40%

P(A | B) = 30%

P(A | C) = 50%

The probability is then calculated as:

P = P(A | B) * P(B)  + P(A | C) * P(C)

Substitute known values

P = 30% * 60% + 50% * 40%

Evaluate the product

P = 38%

Hence, the probability is 38%

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