Mr. Jones has insomnia once a week.If he had an insomnia, he will definitely drink a cup of coffee in the morning. If he got a good night sleep, he will drink coffee with probability 1/2. Let I be the event that he has insomnia. Let C be the event that he drinks coffee in the morning. Given the information above: P(I) = 1/7, P(C|I) = 1 and P(C|I) = 1/2.

Find probability that he drinks coffee in the morning.

Respuesta :

Answer:

[tex]P(C)=\dfrac{4}{7}[/tex]

Step-by-step explanation:

Given:

I is the event that he has insomnia.

C is the event that he drinks coffee in the morning.

[tex]P(I) = \dfrac{1}{7} , P(C|I) = 1 ,and \:P(C|I^c) = \dfrac{1}{2}[/tex]

[tex]P(I^c)=1-P(I) =1- \dfrac{1}{7}=\dfrac{6}{7}[/tex]

We want to determine the probability that he drinks coffee in the morning, P(C).

Using the Law of Total Probability

[tex]P(C)=P(I)P(C|I)+P(I^c)P(C|I^c)[/tex]

[tex]=\dfrac{1}{7}*1+\dfrac{6}{7}*\dfrac{1}{2}\\=\dfrac{1}{7}+\dfrac{3}{7}\\P(C)=\dfrac{4}{7}[/tex]

The probability that he drinks coffee in the morning is [tex]\dfrac{4}{7}[/tex]